Worse Than Stormfront

We both accept that the DCU President did not, as you claimed, say that Irish people would be a minority by 2050.

Not entirely, what I accept is that it’s wrong to imply that he claimed we definitely would be a minority by 2050. I don’t think there’s anything inevitable about Irish people becoming a minority in our own country.

He clearly did said that we could be an ethnic minority by the year 2050 if current trends continue though.
http://www.gaelport.com/index.php?page=clippings&id=55&viewby=date

If you are the Youtube poster PCSCZ you might consider removing that inaccuracy from your videos.

I’m not PCSCZ, I’m Macrommis on youtube, and I don’t think I’ve inaccuractly represented the views of the professor in my video.

You can take a look at the video and judge for yourself.
http://ie.youtube.com/watch?v=gb4xIkdI79k

“In March 2005, Professor Ferdinand von Prondzynski, the president of Dublin City University, made a prediction about the ethnic make up of the Irish population. He predicted that if current trends continue that the indigenous Irish people could be an ethnic minority in their own country by the year 2050.”

What in the above quote is inacurate?

With regard to the Independent article, I must stick to my guns. Nowhere in the “Twice the Size” project does it say that “the population of the republic of Ireland is expected to reach 12 million by 2058”.

I never claimed that it did say that our population would reach 12 million by 2058. It was you who first brought up the report and tried to use it debunk the prediction I referred to in the Irish Independent article.

Notwithstanding your Excel work I’m not aware that anybody has said anywhere in the public domain that our population is “expected to reach 12 million by 2058”.

There was an article in the Irish Independent. Is that not part of the public domain?

You made the claim in the first place but you have no source.

I do have a source. It’s the article in the Irish Independent from the 14th of March this year
http://www.independent.ie/national-news/population-timebomb-sparks-war-of-words-1316128.html

It is true that the “Twice the Size” project does not specifically say that our population WON’T reach 12 million by that year

Really, because that’s not what you said before. In a previous quote you clearly said that the report states that the the population would never reach that high because it would take a ‘deliberate concerted government effort’.

“Secondly, with regard to the article you cited, you say “the population of the republic of Ireland is expected to reach 12 million by 2058″. I think my post below is clear enough but I’ll repeat myself. The study on which the article is based says no such thing. The line I quoted (from that study) demonstrates this, saying that it would take a concerted deliberate Governement strategy to bring such an increase about.”

Did you make a mistake when you wrote that? It’s alright if you did. There’s no shame in that.

but it would be laughable to conclude on that basis that one should draw the conclusion that it therefore WILL reach that number.

Of course, but I didn’t use the report to arrive at the conclusion that the population would reach 12 million by 2058. I got the 12 million figure from an article in the Irish Independent and then used my own independent calculations to work out if that would be feasible at current growth rates.

My figures for the foreign-born population come from the 1996 census. If you go to the CSO website and follow the links to “Census” you should be able to find your way there. Comparing like-with-like, in 1996 the number of people living here but born outside the State was 271,177. That represented 7.47% of the total population which was 3,626,087.

I checked the census figures on the CSO website for 1996 and you’re right, the figures do show that the percentage of the population made up of non-nationals was a lot higher than 2% back in 1996. I was wrong when I said that the foreign population was 2% back in 1998

The figure that you mention, 14.7%, should be compared with that figure – both include people born in Northern Ireland.

Alright then, the 14.7 figure is too high. When you subtract the 1.2% of the population who are northerners that leaves 13.5% of the population who are non-Irish.

This is all for the purpose of clarification so that in the future when you make claims about the percentage of non-Irish people living here you know what you’re talking about and have properly-sourced material.

I’ve learned my lesson. I’ll make sure never to say anything again that I can’t back up with a good source. I did have a source for the 2% figure but it was not reliable and I should double-checked before I used it.

I’m interested in getting to the truth of the issue and so it doesn’t bother me that you’ve proved me wrong on this.

Your slightly hysterical original statement that the percentage of Irish people fell from 98% to maybe 86% in just ten years turns out be simply wrong.

I admit it was wrong. To make up for my mistake I’m going to create a video and put it up on youtube where I make it clear that the 2% figure I mentioned elswhere is inaccurate. I’m very busy with work but I should have it up some time by the end of the coming weekend.

What possible relevance does it have for us?

None whatsoever, now that I think about it. I was wrong to mention Britain in the first place. It gave the impression that I only thought immigration into Ireland is high compared with other countries which is not the case. It doesn’t make any difference how many immigrants Britain is getting as it in no way changes my view that Ireland is taking in too many. Even if Britain was getting twice as many immigrants as us that would in no way change my opinion that we are taking in too many immigrants.

Are you suggesting that we should curtail our level of immigration because the British don’t like it?

No, I think we should curtail our level of immigration because the Irish people don’t like it. According to this, 80% of Irish people want restrictions placed on the number of people coming here.

I don’t know about you but I’m a democrat.

YOU may not like it but that, frankly, is of no concern to me.

It’s not just ME that doesn’t like that. According to this, 80% of Irish people want restrictions placed on the number of people entering the country. We want Ireland to still be an Irish country in a hundred years from now.

Some of the most prosperous stable countries in the world have the highest rates of immigration.

That’s completely irrelevant. I’m not opposed to immigration because I think it will make the country less stable and less prosperous. I’m opposed to mass immigration because I want Ireland to still be an Irish country in a hundred years from now.

Hell, despite much griping, Britain IS one of the most prosperous stable nations in the world.

Britain was one of the most prosperous stable nations in the world before mass immigration so you can’t really claim that immigration had anything to do with it’s stability and prosperity.

If you have any proper objective material to suggest that immigration is bad for countries then I’d love to see it. So far your argument seems to be rooted in opinion.

I don’t have it handy but I’m sure if I went looking it wouldn’t take me long to plenty of evidence that immigration is bad for countries.

It’s doesn’t make any difference to me anyway. My opposition to immigration is not based on whether it’s good or bad for a country. I’m opposed to mass immigration because I want Ireland to still be an Irish country in a hundred years from now.

Let me re-state my position and assure you that this is what I deeply believe. For me, people who are born here or who grow up here, who are educated and live and work in this country are Irish. The origin of their parents has ZERO bearing on this to my mind.

And I think you’re being dishonest in claiming that the origin of their parents has ZERO bearing on whether they’re Irish. I don’t for a second believe that you consider someone who has two Nigerian parents to be as Irish as someone who has two Irish parents. In the same way as I don’t believe that you consider morbidly obese women to be just as attractive as thin women.

Your transvestite comparison is stupid.

Do you consider transvestites to be women?

You appear to see no difference between ethnicity and nationality,

That’s correct, for me Irish ethnicity and Irish nationality are the same thing

which would make the vast majority of United States residents Germans, Irish, British, Eastern Europeans, Africans and Asians.

No, it would make them German-Americans, Irish-Americans, African-Americans, Italian-Americans etc.

just as Irish nationality is distinct from Irish ethnicity?

I find it very difficult to separate the two.

You’re telling me that he’s not Irish?

He’s Irish in the same way that a transvestite is a woman.

And if you believe that the problems in the North had to do with immigration, rather than Plantation, religion and a deliberately divisive policy of colonialism, I’d say it’s you who needs to be hitting the books.

Plantation and British policy might be the cause of the violence but the underlying cause of the divisions in the north has to do with with the differences in religion and ethnicity between the people. The reason for that division is due to a mass influx of British immigrants into Ulster in the 17th century. Without mass immigration, the British would not have been able to implement their policy of plantation in the first place.

I’ve been busy with work over the last few weeks and so I didn’t have a chance to reply sooner.

First, when you say the DCU President “didn’t say we would be a minority and nobody ever reported him as saying we would be a minority”, that’s not true - YOU did in your original post. You wrote “The DCU president said that we’d have to wait until 2050 for the honour of being a minority in our own country”. That’s simply not correct and it appears, now, that you know this. Did you deliberately misquote him or was it a mistake?

You’re right, it was a mistake. I shouldn’t have implied that he claimed that we would be a minority by 2050. There’s nothing inevitable about Irish people becoming a minority by 2050. If we take action now to reduce the number of people coming it’s very unlikely we’ll ever become a minority in our own country.

Secondly, with regard to the article you cited, you say “the population of the republic of Ireland is expected to reach 12 million by 2058″. I think my post below is clear enough but I’ll repeat myself. The study on which the article is based says no such thing. The line I quoted (from that study) demonstrates this, saying that it would take a concerted deliberate Governement strategy to bring such an increase about. The journalist should have
done a better job, but you should have checked the source material. (It’s the “Twice the Size” project written by the Futures Academy at DIT - google that and you’ll get it.)

So what exactly did I (and the Irish Independent) get wrong then? Are you saying that the report says that the population will not reach 12 million by 2058? I’ve read the report and nowhere does it say anything about the Irish population not reaching 12 million by 2058. Maybe you can show me where in the report it says it because I haven’t been able to find it.

The line I quoted (from that study) demonstrates this, saying that it would take a concerted deliberate Governement strategy to bring such an increase about.

No it doesn’t. The report doesn’t even mention the 12 million figure. What the report actually says is that a doubling of the population by 2030 is unlikely as that would mean a population growth rate of 3% a year, which is higher than the current rate. I’ve calculated it and they’re right, it would take until the early 2040s for the population to exceed 8 million at current growth rates.

The actual source of the 12 million by 2050 prediction comes from projecting from current population growth into the future. At a growth rate of 2% a year, the population would reach 11.6 million by the year 2058. According to this article, the growth rate for the last year was 2.5%
http://www.rte.ie/business/2007/1218/cso.html

If that rate continued up until 2058 the population would reach as high as 14 million and so a slow-down in the growth rate has been factored in to arrive at that figure of 12 million. In that article above you’ll see that two-thirds of the population increase is accounted for by immigration and one third by natural increase.

I’ve worked all this out myself in Excel so I know what I’m talking about. I haven’t been able to upload the spreadsheet to my blog but if you’re interested in seeing it I can try to send it to you as a PM.

I’m not sure where you got the statistic that in 1998, 98% of the population was indigenous Irish.

I got it from a quote by Bertie Ahern when he appeared on the Last Word with Matt Cooper cupla mi o shin.

“…you can’t go as we have done in a decade from probably 2% to 10 and in the next decade from 10 to 20″

I forgot that he said that last year and so I should have said 1997 instead of 1998.

In 1996 there were 233,638 foreign-born people living in Ireland. That was 6.44% of the total population.

You are taking the piss. There’s no way the numbers of foreigners in the country was that high back in 1996. You’ve given very exact figures though so I’m sure you must have a good source for this. If you do can you provide the link to it?

Do you find the fall from 93.56% to 90% in ten years less scary?

Yes, it would be less scary if it was just from 93% to 90%. I’ll wait until you can give the source before I accept the 93.56% figure, but even if it’s right, the 90% figure is out of date now and so the fall is greater than you make it seem.
According to this article on the BBC website, non-nationals now make up one in seven of the population
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7130698.stm

“The result is that now, more than one in seven people in Ireland was born outside the country.”

One in seven is approximately 14.2% of the population.

Hibernia Girl has a post over on her blog showing a chart in the latest census with the percentage of non-nationals now standing at 14.7%
http://hiberniagirl.blogspot.com/2008/04/147-per-cent-of-residents-in-2006.html

Do you find the fall from 93.56% to 86% in ten years more scary than the fall from 93% to 90%? Do you find the fall from 90% to 86% in four years, from 2002 to 2006, even more scary?

What was your original source?

My original source is the interview with Bertie Ahern when he appeared on the Last Word with Matt Cooper. You can listen to the quote on the main page of the Immigration Control Platform site. It’s on the right of the page
http://www.immigrationcontrol.org/

And I don’t care how many immigrants Britain get.

Well I do.

When leading British politicians talk about immigration into Britain being too high, and when the figures show that we’re taking in four times as many people as they are, even in a year when the economy isn’t doing so well, I think that might be an indication that we’re taking in more than our fair share
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6968904.stm

If the figures showed that the per capita murder rate was four times higher in Ireland than it is in Britain I don’t you be as quick to brush it aside as something not worth caring about.

I can’t see any relevance in the fact that we in a given year might get more than they do.

What do you mean ‘a given year’? It’s not just in a given year. It’s not as if the numbers will be reversed next year and Britain will go back to taking in more immigrants than us. Just to reach parity with us, we would need to could our numbers in half and they would need to double the numbers they’re taking in. Do you really think that’s going to happen?

Britain will never allow immigration into their country to get as high as it is here. No British government would survive a week if they had anything anything approaching our level of immigration.

Other countries like Canada, New Zealand, Switzerland, Spain, Germany, Australia etc have taken in the same or higher numbers as us percentagewise.

Why do you care about how many immigrants those countries are taking in but you don’t care about how many immigrants Britain is taking in? Why would you expect me to care about countries that are taking in more than us when you care that there are other countries that are taking far fewer immigrants than us?

The proportion of foreign-born people in these countries is similar to ours.

And how long did it take for the numbers of foreigners in those countries to reach as high as it is now in Ireland? Did it all happen within a decade as it has in Ireland?

They seem to be surviving reasonably well.

I’m assuming you’re allthedavids and so you will have already read my reply to this in other threads on the eirenet site.

You say “The fact is that we have too many people coming here”, but of course that’s not a fact - it’s an opinion.

You’re right, it is an opinion. I didn’t expect the word ‘fact’ to be taken literally. I meant it more as a figure of speech. You’re right though, we should be more careful in our use of words.

Your argument seems to be rooted in the notion that foreign people coming in are diluting the Irishness of the population and that a siginificant increase in immigrants is, therefore, a bad thing.

Correct

You jump to all sorts of illogical conclusions on the basis of this opinion.

Can you give an example of one of the illogical conclusions I’ve jumped to?

The crux of the argument that you and I have with each other comes down to Irishness and what it is.

I don’t think so. I think deep down we both agree on who is and who isn’t Irish. It’s just that I’m honest about it and you’re not.

I think the crux of the argument between us comes down to our different attitudes to the future of immigration into Ireladn. I share the view of most Irish people that Ireland is taking in too many immigrants and that it’s time for to cut down on the numbers coming. You on the other hand are in the minority who want the numbers to continue at the same levels into the future.

To me, somebody who is born, reared and educated here, who speaks with an Irish accent (and may even speak the Irish language) and views this place as home, is Irish.

I think there’s a lot more to Irishness than that, just as there’s more to being a polar bear than having white fur and living in the Artic circle.

My attitude towards the ‘new Irish’ is a bit like most people’s attitude towards transvestites. Just as I don’t consider transvestites to be real women, I don’t consider the immigrants or their descendants to be real Irish people.

It makes no difference to me where their parents came from.

I think it does make a huge difference. If both of your parents were black Nigerians then I would consider you to be less Irish than if both your parents were native Irish.

For someone to be truly Irish they must have roots in this country stretching back several generations.

You yourself, I believe, have ancestors that came from Britain. At one point they were British people living in Ireland and then they became Irish.

That’s correct, my British ancestors did become Irish, as did many other British people who settled in the more remote parts of the country.

Many other British people didn’t become Irish and they have retained their British identity right up to today. It’s not just the orangemen up in the north either. There are even some British-descended people in the republic of Ireland who still feel a strong attachment to their ancestral homeland. Some of them even want to be granted British passports:
http://reform.org/joomla/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=15&Itemid=28

Why won’t the same thing happen to the children of immigrants in Ireland today?

Because there are so many of them coming in that it’s not possible for the native population to dilute them into the population as they’ve done with previous immigrants. Ireland has never had to deal with immigration this high before.

And also because many of them are so culturally and racially different from the native Irish that they will have a more difficult time blending in with the natives. Previous waves of immigrants were mostly of the same western-northern European stock as us and so they had a relatively easy time fitting in. After a few generations they were indistinguishable from the natives.

There are people, as far as I’m aware mostly in the West of Ireland, whose ancestry and connection to their local area goes back maybe a thousand years or more. Are these the indigenous Irish people that you talk about?

The indigenous Irish people I talk about are the normal Irish people you see around you every day of the week.

Are they more Irish than I am or you are?

I’m a west of Ireland man myself and I’m of predominantly old gaelic stock. I think I can speak for most west of Ireland people when I say that we don’t feel any more Irish than people living in any other part of Ireland.

Or at a certain point do the kind of gradations you’re talking about here seem silly?

Yes, at a certain point they are silly. It’s silly to talk about about a difference between a Viking Irish and a gaelic Irish or the difference between a Norman Irish and a native Irishman with one Italian grandfather or the difference between a catholic living in Wexford and a catholic living in Tyrone.

Some gradations however are not as silly. It’s not silly to talk about the difference between a muslim living in Dublin and a farmer living in Kerry or the difference between a catholic living on the Falls road and a protestant living on the Shankill road.

You’ve said repeatedly that immigration for you is not an economic issue. For me that aspect is important. What we have seen over the past ten years was an economic boom and high rates of immigration. As the economy slows, the number of immigrants is likely to fall too.

And so what exactly is your point? I wasn’t aware that we were discussing the causes of the increase in immigration. I thought we were discussing whether the current levels are too high and whether we should take action to reduce the numbers coming in.

I’d love if the economy took off again next year and if, as a result, the number of immigrants started to rise again it would not bother me at all.

You’re in the minority then because most Irish people would agree with me that we have too many people coming in and that it’s time for us to start imposing restrictions.
http://hiberniagirl.blogspot.com/2008/04/do-irish-want-debate-on-immigration.html

“Some 80% of people back the idea that restrictions should be placed on the number of non-nationals who are allowed to come to Ireland.”

“…60% of respondents believe that “traditional Irish culture and values” are being lost due to the increase in non-nationals living and working here.“

We’ve had Celts, Vikings, Normans, English, Scottish, Huguenots, Jews, Hungarians, Czechs, Vietnamese, Chinese, Nigerians, Spanish, Yanks, Poles and the country seems to be a remarkably stable place. “

Only someone who was very ignorant of Irish history could make such a ridiculous statement.

and the country seems to be a remarkably stable place.

Only if you’re talking about the 26 counties. If you include the 6 northern counties (the multicultural part) the country seems slightly less stable.

Is the definition of Irishness not capable of absorbing new aspects to its identity the way that it, undeniably, always has?

If you’re going to insist on a purely literal use of words then I think it’s only fair that I hold you to the same standard as you hold me. You use the word ‘undeniable’ to describe our ability to absorb people into our population but of course you know that’s not true. There’s nothing undeniable about it. There are plenty of people, myself included, who would deny that Ireland has managed to absorb new arrivals. I was up in Belfast a few weeks ago and I saw plenty of things that would lead me to deny that we have always absorbed new people into our identity.

Finally, I’m not entirely sure I believe you when you say that you deliberately misinterpreted the PPS figures for the first two months of this year. Your explanation doesn’t seem plausible. Seems like a simple mistake to me. No shame in that.

You’re right, it was a mistake and I’m grateful that you spotted it and set me straight. I remember I made a similar mistake before on the eirenet side when I incorrectly claimed that 80% of immigrants returned home within a year of arriving here. Strangely, nobody seemed to notice it or correct me.

First, when you say the DCU President “didn’t say we would be a minority and nobody ever reported him as saying we would be a minority”, that’s not true - YOU did in your original post. You wrote “The DCU president said that we’d have to wait until 2050 for the honour of being a minority in our own country”. That’s simply not correct and it appears, now, that you know this. Did you deliberately misquote him or was it a mistake?

Secondly, with regard to the article you cited, you say “the population of the republic of Ireland is expected to reach 12 million by 2058″. I think my post below is clear enough but I’ll repeat myself. The study on which the article is based says no such thing. The line I quoted (from that study) demonstrates this, saying that it would take a concerted deliberate Governement strategy to bring such an increase about. The journalist should have
done a better job, but you should have checked the source material. (It’s the “Twice the Size” project written by the Futures Academy at DIT - google that and you’ll get it.)

I’m not sure where you got the statistic that in 1998, 98% of the population was indigenous Irish. In 1996 there were 233,638 foreign-born people living in Ireland. That was 6.44% of the total population. Do you find the fall from 93.56% to 90% in ten years less scary? What was your original source?

And I don’t care how many immigrants Britain get. I can’t see any relevance in the fact that we in a given year might get more than they do. Other countries like Canada, New Zealand, Switzerland, Spain, Germany, Australia etc have taken in the same or higher numbers as us percentagewise. The proportion of foreign-born people in these countries is similar to ours. They seem to be surviving reasonably well.

You say “The fact is that we have too many people coming here”, but of course that’s not a fact - it’s an opinion. Your argument seems to be rooted in the notion that foreign people coming in are diluting the Irishness of the population and that a siginificant increase in immigrants is, therefore, a bad thing. You jump to all sorts of illogical conclusions on the basis of this opinion. You can not simply take this as fact. The crux of the argument that you and I have with each other comes down to Irishness and what it is.

To me, somebody who is born, reared and educated here, who speaks with an Irish accent (and may even speak the Irish language) and views this place as home, is Irish. It makes no difference to me where their parents came from. I know too many people who have ancestry from elsewhere to believe that. You yourself, I believe, have ancestors that came from Britain. At one point they were British people living in Ireland and then they became Irish. Why won’t the same thing happen to the children of immigrants in Ireland today?

There are people, as far as I’m aware mostly in the West of Ireland, whose ancestry and connection to their local area goes back maybe a thousand years or more. Are these the indigenous Irish people that you talk about? Are they more Irish than I am or you are? Or at a certain point do the kind of gradations you’re talking about here seem silly?

You’ve said repeatedly that immigration for you is not an economic issue. For me that aspect is important. What we have seen over the past ten years was an economic boom and high rates of immigration. As the economy slows, the number of immigrants is likely to fall too. I’m pretty sanguine about it all. I’d love if the economy took off again next year and if, as a result, the number of immigrants started to rise again it would not bother me at all.

If our economy stalls, unemployment soars and hundreds of thousands or Eastern Europeans come here specifically with the purpose of signing on, I would regard that as a bad thing. There are specific measures within the EU to close the labour market doors if real economic peril is a prospect. I don’t think we’re there at all.

The fact is that people have always moved around. They come and they go. Some will stay put in new countries, settle and put down roots. We’ve had Celts, Vikings, Normans, English, Scottish, Huguenots, Jews, Hungarians, Czechs, Vietnamese, Chinese, Nigerians, Spanish, Yanks, Poles and the country seems to be a remarkably stable place. Is the definition of Irishness not capable of absorbing new aspects to its identity the way that it, undeniably, always has?

Finally, I’m not entirely sure I believe you when you say that you deliberately misinterpreted the PPS figures for the first two months of this year. Your explanation doesn’t seem plausible. Seems like a simple mistake to me. No shame in that.

First, it was 14,000 PPS numbers in the first two months of the year, not three so by simply multiplying the figure out, the total for the year would be 84,000.

I realised that but I deliberately made it seem that I thought it covered the three months. I’ve found that it strenghtens my case if I downplay the true scale of the problem and make it seem like it’s not as bad as it really is. Even at the lower figure of 50,000 for the year, you can still see how high that is compared to countries like Britain.

The number is falling and the rate at which it is falling is increasing.

It would fall even further if we imposed restrictions and started to seriously look at policing our borders.

I’m happy to acknowledge that immigration is falling but I just don’t believe it’s enough. If you’re right and we get 84,000 immigrants this year that would mean that we would have four times as many immigrants, per head of population, as Britain is getting each year. It means that even if immigration into Britain doubled this year, it would still only be half as high as we’re getting in this country.

And what will happen if the economy recovers and we’re back to the same level of job creation as the last few years? Can we expect the numbers to rise again?

You haven’t answered the question either whether you welcome the fall in numbers. Would you rather we had last years numbers again this year?

If 84,000 people come and 85,000 people leave, then you’re in the magical position of 1,000 fewer immigrants.

Correct. And if 10,000 people came here and 85,000 people leave we’d be in the even better position of having 75,000 fewer immigrants here. That’s an even stronger argument for restricting immigration. Which option do you think people would prefer, 1,000 fewer immigrants or 75,000 fewer immigrants? Remember, according to a report by the BBC, foreigners now make up 1 in 8 of the population. I don’t think I’m the only person who believes that that is too high.

I can’t say how many people will leave, but there are factors which make me believe that many will.

I’m sure you’re right and tens of thousands of them will return home. I know several Polish people who have already returned home in the last few months and I know of others who are planning to return home shortly. Ag an am cheana, I know of many others who have no intention of returning home.  

The fact is we don’t know for sure how it will turn out. We can sit back and hope for the best or we can take action to reduce the number of people coming in. Even if most of the immigrants return home by themselves and if the numbers entering continues to fall naturally by itself, we’d still in a better position if we reduced the numbers coming in.

Despite the fact that there were poorer countries than us in the EU in the 80s and 90s, just about nobody emigrated to Ireland because there was no work to be had.

I’m not sure if that’s correct. I don’t think there were any countries back then that had such a huge disparity in wage levels as there are now between Ireland and Eastern Europe. But even if there were such countries, there were other factors that would have prevented the easy movement of people between countries. Travel was more expensive back then.

And anyway, what difference does it make? We know thousands of east-Europeans, Asians and Africans want to immigrate to Ireland. Whether they’re here because there’s jobs for them or because they like the weather is irrelevant. The fact is that we have too many people coming here.

Nearly all my friends went to the US or Britain after college. Now they’re all back here. I don’t think anything’s changed.

And hopefully the same will happen with our immigrants here. That’s still not an argument for not restricting immigration though. The best argument for restricting immigration is that it will lead to a reversal of the fall in the percentage of the Irish population made up of indigenous Irish people.

The best scenario I can think of would be if we had large numbers of them leaving the country and very few of them entering the country. We don’t really have any control over the first part but we can take action straight away to massively reduce the numbers coming in.

Improving conditions at home and the opening up of other economies closer to Central and Eastern Europe, coupled with our slowing economy will drive the number of migrant labourers down, quite possibly to a number that even you would find acceptable.

A number that I would find acceptable would be a number that would not lead to a further decline in the native Irish population. We’re 86-90% of the population now (86% according to the BBC). I don’t want see that percentage fall further. If you can assure me that the indigenous Irish will not fall below 85% of the population of their own country within the next five years then I might begin to change my mind about the numbers.

We don’t have an open-borders policy so we can’t re-consider it.

We have an open borders with millions of low-wage East Europeans. It’s fully within our power to restrict the movement of people from those countries. Most other European countries have restrictions in place and so it’s time for us to do the same.

If you’re suggesting that we stop allowing EU members to work here, then I disagree.

Why not? Is it because you think we won’t be seen as good Europeans if we stop allowing them here? Would you expect the Spanish and Italians and Germans and Dutch and French to denounce for taking the same action that they themselves took just a few years ago?

There are millions of people in Eastern Europe who have both the means and the incentive to move here. We know that tens of thousands of them have already moved here and there’s every reason to believe that many thousands will continue moving here in the years ahead. If the choice is between being seen as bad Europeans and losing our country then I’m happy to consider myself a bad European.

Our economy boomed - the number of migrants increased. Our economy slows - the number of migrants falls off. I’m not sure what the problem is.

I can’t believe you fail to see what the problem is. The indigenous Irish made up 98% of the population of the Republic of Ireland in 1998. After less than ten years of mass immigration that percentage had fallen to 86-90% today. If we keep going at the current levels of immigration we can expect the percentage of indigenous Irish people to fall further. That’s the problem.

And you’re simply wrong when you say that our population is expected to rise to 12 million by 2058.

I don’t think I am wrong. Read the article again

“The study — dubbed ‘Twice the Size — Engineering the Future of Irish Gateway Cities’ — warned that Ireland has badly underestimated growth over recent years, with Ireland expected to reach a population of eight million by 2033 and 12 million by 2058.”

You should read the actual report, which suggests that Government policy should be to make efforts to double the population by 2030.

I don’t think that’s correct. Where I can find the report so that I can check? Do you have a link to it?

“At national level, it would not be realistic to assume a doubling of population by 2030….such a doubling of population over a similar time-frame would require a specific,targeted Government growth strategy in favour of Ireland’s Gateway and Hub settlements.”

Where did you get that quote from?

And, as you surely know, the DCU President did not say that the Irish would be a minority by 2050

He didn’t say we would be a minority and nobody ever reported him as saying we would be a minority. He said we could be a minority if current trends continue for much longer
http://www.gaelport.com/index.php?page=clippings&id=55&viewby=date

There has been so much scare-mongering about immigration over the past number of years

Sometimes the scare-mongers are proved right. They were proved right about the consequences of opening our borders to tens of millions of low-wage Eastern-Europeans.

These comments were left by freenxp in reply to a post of my on this thread
http://www.eirenet.org/index.php?topic=576.0

I don’t think the eirenet site is suitable for a serious discussion. I’m not sure if this place is either, but you went to the trouble to reply and there are some points I’d like to make in return.

First, it was 14,000 PPS numbers in the first two months of the year, not three so by simply multiplying the figure out, the total for the year would be 84,000. Now before you start running around in circles, there are a couple of things worth bearing in mind. The number is falling and the rate at which it is falling is increasing. Remember also that this does not take into account the number of people leaving. If 84,000 people come and 85,000 people leave, then you’re in the magical position of 1,000 fewer immigrants. I can’t say how many people will leave, but there are factors which make me believe that many will. Our economy continues to slow. There are still a lot of construction projects being worked on but as these begin to dry up, so will the demand for labour. House completions for this year by some estimates will be a third of what they were in 2006. Despite the fact that there were poorer countries than us in the EU in the 80s and 90s, just about nobody emigrated to Ireland because there was no work to be had. Nearly all my friends went to the US or Britain after college. Now they’re all back here. I don’t think anything’s changed. Improving conditions at home and the opening up of other economies closer to Central and Eastern Europe, coupled with our slowing economy will drive the number of migrant labourers down, quite possibly to a number that even you would find acceptable.

We don’t have an open-borders policy so we can’t re-consider it. If you’re suggesting that we stop allowing EU members to work here, then I disagree. Our economy boomed - the number of migrants increased. Our economy slows - the number of migrants falls off. I’m not sure what the problem is. I’d prefer we weren’t heading for a recession but I don’t think even you would blame, for example, the US sub-prime fiasco on immigrants.

And you’re simply wrong when you say that our population is expected to rise to 12 million by 2058. When I look at the Independent article you linked to, I can understand your mistake. The journalist fundamentally seems to have misunderstood what was being said. You should read the actual report, which suggests that Government policy should be to make efforts to double the population by 2030.

“At national level, it would not be realistic to assume a doubling of population by 2030….such a doubling of population over a similar time-frame would require a specific,targeted Government growth strategy in favour of Ireland’s Gateway and Hub settlements.” It’s a discussion document about future city planning. If you want to talk about their proposals I’d be happy to, but it’s not really relevant in this discussion.

And, as you surely know, the DCU President did not say that the Irish would be a minority by 2050 - he cited unidentified, unpublished UK-based research to that affect as a starting-point for a discussion, also relating to future planning.

There has been so much scare-mongering about immigration over the past number of years, very little of it related to realistic economic factors that effect the comings and goings of immigrants. Feenxp on the eirenet site started out pretending to be concerned about immigration and the impact of EU membership and vehemently denied he was a racist. He can now be seen posting absolute bullshit about “nig-nogs” on Stormfront. True colours will out. I’m not saying you’re anything like him, but many of the people ratcheting up tension in the light of people’s fears about immigration have questionable motivation. I mean, obviously, you are a racist as you yourself would say, but you’re not stupid. Let’s try and keep things rooted in reality. (Comment this)